China's money supply growth was better than expected in June, but still below the annual growth target, official data showed Tuesday, pointing to further room for monetary easing ahead.
M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, grew by 11.8 percent year-on-year to 133.34 trillion yuan ($21.46 trillion) by the end of June, beating previous market forecasts, according to data released Tuesday by the People's Bank of China (PBC), the country's central bank.
The M2 growth figure was also 1 percentage point higher than at the end of May, but still below the 12 percent annual M2 growth target set by the central government.
"While M2 growth picked up pace compared with the previous month, the 11.8 percent figure still represents a relatively slow growth rate, because historically, China's average M2 growth has usually been around 13 to 14 percent," Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times Tuesday.
"If the central bank announces some monetary easing measures, it won't be very hard to achieve the 12 percent annual target, but the PBC needs to adjust the liquidity level carefully based on the real economy," Xi noted.
Tuesday's data also showed that Chinese banks issued 6.56 trillion yuan worth of new yuan-denominated loans during the first half of this year, up 537.1 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2014.
Nevertheless, the country's total social financing aggregate - a broad gauge of liquidity in the economy including bank loans, corporate bonds and other equity financing - dropped 1.46 trillion yuan year-on-year to 8.81 trillion yuan during the first six months of 2015, according to the PBC data.
In terms of the social financing structure, bank loans continued to increase during the first half, meaning that financing through other channels such as corporate bonds decreased, which is probably because the central government has rolled out various measures to prevent and curb financial risks, Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank in China, said Tuesday in an interview with financial TV channel China Business Network.
"Social financing is not completely controlled by the central bank, but decided by economic activities," Xi said. "Amid the current sluggish growth, economic activities are also quite slack at present, leading to the fall in social financing."
With the continuing downward pressure, enterprises have become more cautious toward business expansion, thus resulting in weakening demand for capital, Xi explained.
Against such a backdrop, experts and institutions widely expect more monetary easing policies to be rolled out to help stabilize the economic fundamentals.
"As there is no inflationary pressure on the macro economy, there is still room for further monetary easing," Xi said.
The PBC will not change its monetary easing stance in the second half of this year, but will make adequate adjustments to market liquidity by using various policy tools such as cuts to banks' reserve requirement ratio and new pledged supplementary lending (PSL), Minsheng Securities said in a research note Tuesday.
PSL is a monetary tool the central bank created in 2014 to extend loans to banks at low interest rates.
According to a research note Huatai Securities sent to the Global Times Tuesday, the central bank is likely to maintain its prudent monetary policy, and to fine-tune overall liquidity through various open market operations in the near future.